Author: Righty

One Month in the Books: Red Sox April Report Card

red sox outfielders

Your 2016 Boston Red Sox starting outfield. (Jim Davis/Globe Staff)

Red Sox made it through a very tough April schedule (although it was loaded with home games) with a respectable 14-10 record. Pretty remarkable given the fact that they had the worst starting rotation in baseball for the majority of the month.

I only ranked the main players. Guys like Noe Ramirez and Josh Rutledge will get graded when they have proved they are worthy of my consideration. Let’s get right into it.

[I think this goes without saying, but these grades are relative to my expectation for each player coming into the season. Not who has the best numbers.]

Christian Vazquez

He’ll probably never win the Silver Slugger, but ended April on a 5-game hitting streak. More importantly, when he returned from the DL, the starting pitching made a miraculous turnaround. This guy is a great game caller and receiver, and made an immediate, tangible impact on the Red Sox pitching staff. Grade: A-

Blake Swihart

Blake only appeared in 6 games before his demotion in the middle of the month. He was batting .278 when he was sent down, but was without an extra base hit. His trip to Pawtucket wasn’t due to his performance, but due to a backlog at the catcher position once Vazquez returned form injury. The Sox like his bat and are trying him in the outfield in AAA. Grade: Incomplete

Ryan Hanigan

A solid backstop who’s struggling at the plate. Sound familiar? If he doesn’t pick it up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sox called up Swihart to get a little more pop out of the catcher position. Grade: C-

Hanley Ramirez

His approach at the plate has been refreshing – he’s toned down the leg kick and his hitting for average – but his power numbers have been pretty weak. Obviously the big question coming into the season was his defense at first base… Dude hasn’t made an error all year and has shown he can pick it. Given his history as a middle infielder this shouldn’t exactly be surprising, but after last year’s misadventure in left, you’d be forgiven for being nervous. Grade: B-

Dustin Pedroia

He’s healthy (for now), raking, and flashing the leather up the middle. Ho hum. Grade: A

Xander Bogaerts

He got off to a slow start, but his average is coming back up and he’s drawing walks at a better rate than last season. His power still hasn’t developed like we expected, but maybe that’ll come as the weather heats up. No errors in the field. Grade: B+

Travis Shaw

Hitting .300 with good power, while playing rock solid defense at third. Couldn’t ask for anything more. Grade: A+

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Mr. April. He’s piling up clutch hits and ended the month with a bang, going 3 for 3 last night with two triples, a double, a walk, and 3 knocked in. He’s riding a 7-game hitting streak and his average is up to .272 after a rough start.

And the gold glove caliber defense in center goes without saying. Grade: B+

Mookie Betts

The homers and defense have been there, but everything else has fallen short of our (stratospheric) expectations of Mookie. Nothing to worry about, he got off to a slow start last season too, but just not what we expected thus far. Grade: B-

Brock Holt

He’s shown some pop, but his batting average is about 20 points below what we’re used to seeing. I blame this largely on being part of a platoon with Chris Young. It’s tough to stay locked in when you’re riding the pine every few games. Grade: A gentleman’s C+

Chris Young

He’s supposed to be the right-handed platoon guy, but he’s inexplicably had more plate appearances against righties thus far in 2016. The former All-Star is hitting .185. Grade: D-

Rusney Castillo

Bizarre. He appeared in one game and went 2-4 and was promptly demoted. Given his upside I’d like to see him platoon with Holt and send Young packing. He can’t do much worse than .185. Grade: Incomplete

David Ortiz

He’s slashing .321/.418/.654. His 1.071 OPS is tops in the league. Leading the team in average, home runs and RBIs. Seriously, why is this guy retiring? Grade: A+

David Price

Hasn’t been a pretty start for Boston’s new ace. His 5.76 ERA is an accurate barometer for how he’s performed so far. But there are reasons for optimism: he’s striking out a ton of guys (fanned 14 in his last start, though it was against the hapless Braves), and he’s a notoriously slow starter. I’m not worried, but he’s certainly underperformed. Grade: D+

Clay Buchholz

Hoo boy. I’m a pretty shameless Buchholz defender but this has been a disastrous start to the season. He’s had one decent start and four pretty bad ones, leading to a 6.51 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, striking out only 19 in 27.2 innings. Grade: F (sorry Clay. You’re still my boy)

Rick Porcello

Well, well, well. After a shaky start, Freddy has settled in to a nice little groove. His home run bugaboo is still there, but outside of the gopher balls, he’s been dominant. 2.76 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 36/6 K/BB in 32.2 innings. And he hasn’t given up a homer in his last two starts (again, thank heaven for the Braves). Grade: A

Joe Kelly

He’s on the shelf with a shoulder impingement, but owned a truly impressive 9.35 ERA before he got hurt. Given the emergence of Steven Wright and the imminent return of Eddie Rodriguez, look for Pumpsie to be returning to the bullpen. Grade: F

Steven Wright

His 1.37 ERA is second in the AL and has locked down a rotation start for the foreseeable future. Grade: A+

Henry Owens

Decent in two starts. Probably gets bumped from the rotation when Eddie returns. Grade: C

Tommy Layne

Lefties are hitting .385 against him. Righties are hitting .143. Go figure. Grade: D

Robbie Ross Jr.

Not terrible, not great. Grade: C

Matt Barnes

His numbers are ok, but he hasn’t passed the eye test. I don’t trust this guy. Grade: B

Junichi Tazawa

Lefty’s boy owns a 0.93 ERA and a microscopic 0.621 WHIP. Good to have the old Taz back to hold down the late innings. Grade: A+

Koji Uehara

He’s had some rough patches which is worrying given his age. It’s too early to tell whether or not he’ll be able to regain his old form, but his load should be lightened with the return of Carson Smith. Grade: B-

Craig Kimbrel

Papelbon 2.0. His control abandons him at times which gets him into trouble that he can’t always escape. His 4.09 ERA is twice as high as we expected, but I’m not worrying yet. Grade: C-

Dave O’Brien

Comparing him to Don would be cruel and pointless. But he’s just not Don. He’s crisp, professional, knowledgable, and has interesting anecdotes. But he doesn’t giggle like Don did and he doesn’t have the chemistry with Jerry (not yet at least). Grade: A*

*but he’s no Don Orsillo

The offense has been spectacular, and the pitching is coming around. Bring on May.

Weekend + Patriots’ Day Recap

Friday 4/15: Red Sox 5 Blue Jays 3

Papi stole.

Porcello was decent, but once again plagued by the long ball. He gave up two, and Josh Donaldson hit one about 418 feet to dead center that JBJ tracked down and caught, but is gone in any other park.

Saturday 4/16: Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 2

Dave Price gives up a triple to Donaldson and a double to Joey Bats in the first, but settles in to give up only one more run in seven innings, striking out 9 and walking nobody.

Xander Bogaerts provided all of the necessary offense with a 3 run dinger in the bottom of the third, and the Mayor of Ding Dong City, Travis Shaw added an RBI single for good measure.

Kimbrel struck out the heart of the Jays’ order, in order, to earn the save.

Sunday 4/17: Blue Jays 5 Red Sox 3

Jays’ starter Aaron Sanchez stifled the Sox’ bats, giving up just one run on two hits in seven dominant innings.

Steven Wright once again pitched well for Boston, giving up two earned over six innings, striking out six without walking a batter (pretty impressive for a knuckleballer). He now boasts an ERA of 2.13 on the young season.

Shaw made this one interesting by hitting a two-run homer in the ninth, but it wasn’t enough.

Monday 4/18: Blue Jays 4 Red Sox 3

Clay Buchholz tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, but the offense only managed one run in support.

Koji came in for the 8th with a 1-0 lead and gave up a hit, hit a batter, and walked two guys. John Farrell brought on Kimbrel with the bases loaded and the game still tied at one. He struck out Encarnacion, but then walked in a run and gave up a hit. More on this in a minute.

Travis Shaw once again made the 9th interesting by doubling in a run and coming around to score on a Hanley single, but there wasn’t enough 9th inning magic on this Patriots’ Day.

Trends

-Craig Kimbrel has a little too much Jon Papelbon in him for my taste. At times he’s unhittable and utterly dominant. Other times he starts nibbling at the corners and his control abandons him. Walking in a run with the bases loaded is never a good look, but he had Tulo down 1-2 and threw three straight pitches that were nowhere near the zone.

-The starting pitching was good in this series. Four games, four quality starts. Christian Vasquez was called up for Friday’s game. Coincidence? Maybe. Maybe not.

-The offense came back to earth a little bit after a hot start.

-Even though they split the series, winning the first two and losing the last two feels a lot worse than any other win/loss combination that leads to a split.

Weekend Recap: Red Sox Take 2 of 3 From Division Champs

Brock Holt is such the man before the All-Star break #BrockStar4lyf (Photo: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

Brock Holt is such the man before the All-Star break #BrockStar4lyf (Photo: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

The Red Sox took two out of three on the road against the defending AL East champs this weekend, winning their first series of the year.

Friday Night: Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 7

What started out as an unmitigated disaster turned out to be the most fun I’ve had watching a Red Sox game in a long time. Joe Kelly took the hill and had an outing that was a perfect encapsulation of his career. Threw hard, at times looked unhittable, left pitches up, missed spots, and ended up getting rocked to the tune of 7 earned in 3 innings.

In Spring Training, Kelly worked on sacrificing some velocity to have better control of his pitches. In innings 1-3 Kelly stuck to the plan, and it was effective, but It seemed like when he got in trouble he reverted to old familiar ways. He hit 99 on the gun in the bottom of the 4th, when the Blue Jays would tag him for 6 runs. He left the game with the score 7-2 bad guys.

But the Brock Star picked up ol’ Pumpsie.

In the top of the 6th, Xander doubled, and Ortiz and Shaw walked, packing the sacks for Brock, who already had an RBI double on the evening.

7-6 bad guys.

In the top of the next inning, the Sox strung together four consecutive singles to take an 8-7 lead. Pedroia and Bogaerts set the table, and Ortiz and Ramirez knocked in the game-tying and go-ahead runs, just like they drew it up. 8-7 good guys.

Craig Kimbrel locked down the 9th for his first save in a Boston uniform.

The 2015 Red Sox came back to win after trailing by 4 runs or more exactly one time (I don’t have the numbers on me, but I think the 2013 team did it like 1,000 times). The 2016 squad has thus far responded well after getting down early. The fact that they always seem to be down early is another issue.

Saturday Afternoon: Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 4

Rick Porcello started this one and for a minute it looked like his start would mirror Joe Kelly’s from the day before. He gave up a pair of two-run home runs to Jose Bautista in the first and third, putting his club down early. One brilliant Red Sox blogger said before the season started that keeping the ball in the yard was one of the keys to Porcello’s season. Gopher balls aside, Freddie pitched pretty well, walking one and striking out 7 over 6 innings. The seven strikeouts are nice, but Rick gets in trouble when he falls in love with the K instead of keeping ball down in the zone to get groundouts.

The runs came thanks to a steady offensive attack (the Sox had 11 hits), and got some help from R.A. Dickey knuckleballs that fluttered too much for Jays’ catcher Josh Thole to catch.

Hanley also “tripled” when his looping would-be-single hit a seam in the Rogers Centre turf and bounced over Joey Bats’ head.

Sunday Afternoon: Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 0

The Red Sox had been scoring at an unsustainable pace to open up the season, so I feel like this was just a regression to the mean.

Steven Wright was great for Boston:

PITCHERS IP  H  R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
Wright (L, 0-1) 6.2 6 2 1 3 5 0 118-78 1.35

Joe Kelly better step it up.

Notes:

-Travis Shaw has an OPS of .859 and is making plays like this at third base. Meanwhile, Pablo Sandoval is batting .000 with 4 strikeouts in 6 at bats, one busted belt on a swing and miss, and has an error in the field.

-Hanley was 3 for 4 with a double on Sunday, boosting his average to .455. Of course, Hanley was a monster last April too, hitting 10 home runs in the first month of the season, and we all know how that turned out. But his early success this season is more sustainable. He’s taking the ball to the opposite field on a regular basis, hitting for average first and letting the power come naturally. Obviously he won’t hit .455, but Hanley’s swing is much more compact than last season, and his leg kick isn’t nearly as high, giving him more bat control. Oh and by the way, he hasn’t made an error at first base.

-It’s early in the season and Brock Holt is raking. In other news, water is wet.

-Today is the home opener, Righty will be there, and all is right in the world.

2016 Red Sox Pitching Primer


While it stinks on ice that the first game of 2016 was postponed, it has given Lefty and I a chance to get our acts together and get you some player-by-player previews. In case you’re running as far behind as we are, here’s a cheat sheet to help you get up to speed on the 2016 Boston Red Sox pitching staff.

Before we start though I’d like to share this quote about Opening Day from our old friend Tito Francona that brought a tear to my eye:

“It’s one of the most amazing feelings there is,” he said. “I’ve been doing this for a long time because I’m getting older. I’m not sure how something can be the same over and over and over and over again and yet be so wonderful. There’s a lot excitement. There’s certainly some anxiety. There’s probably a small piece of terror. Did we cover everything? Things like that. But it’s the same every year. It never changes. I hope it doesn’t. It’s a great feeling.”

Amen, Terry. Amen.

Starters

David Price (Ace) – Listen, I’ve never been a David Price fan. He always seemed soft, sensitive to criticism, weak in the postseason, and had a habit at throwing at Big Papi – a childhood (and adulthood) hero of mine. I imagine it gets very frustrating when a hitter treats you like an old dirty rug, but you don’t start acting like a little bitch (Papi’s words) and throw at Dominican Santa Claus. But they seem to have made up.

Ortiz And Price

In any case, last year I talked myself into Clay Buchholz being a true ace (more on that in a second), but I feel much better this year. Price is a perennial Cy Young award candidate and has had a WHIP of 1.1 or under five out of the last six seasons. He’s a true top-of-the rotation starter, just what the doctor ordered.

Clay Buchholz – You all know the story here: a great #2 starter (altogether now) if he stays healthy. This has been a struggle for Clay throughout his career. No one questions his stuff, but his ability to stay on the mound and log significant innings is always a huge question mark. He’s never started 30 games or logged 190IP in one season. The last two times he came close he had ERAs of 4.56 and 5.34 in 2012 and 2014 respectively. I don’t know if he’s pitching hurt in those seasons, or he sacrifices effectiveness for longevity. Clay might be the biggest X factor of this iteration of the Red Sox, and may be the difference between the Sox making or missing the playoffs. If he can log 180 innings with a sub-4 ERA, the Sox will be in great shape.

Rick Porcello – Can’t be worse than last year.

Realistically though I’m optimistic for a bounceback season. Freddy was trending in the right direction in the latter half of 2015. After he surrendered 7 earned runs in 2 innings on July 1 to ballon his ERA to 6.08, Porcello would post an ERA of 3.49 over his final 12 starts of the season (with a trip to the minors mixed in). His biggest problem was the gopherball: he surrendered a whopping 25 last year in 172 innings. There was chatter around the organization that he had become enamored with the strikeout, and as a result was leaving pitches up in the zone, instead of pounding the bottom of the zone with the sinker. Keys to his season: keeping the ball in the yard and having a high groundball rate. He’s been exceptionally durable throughout his career.

Joe “Pumpsie” Kelly – Complete wildcard. He has electric stuff – probably the best of anyone on the staff. Similar to Porcello, Kelly gave Sox fans reason for hope at the end of his 2015 campaign. After giving up 5 earned in 5 innings, bumping his ERA to an unsightly 6.11 on August 1, Kelly would post a 2.35 ERA in his final 8 starts, and win his final 8 decisions before getting shut down in mid-September due to injury. It would be foolish to expect him to resume that pace in 2016, but Joe could reasonably be expected to settle into a the role of an above average #5 starter. He could also reasonably be expected to implode and get moved to the bullpen or demoted.

Steven Wright – The knuckleballer gets the nod as the temporary 5th starter thanks to the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez. Steven was solid in spot-start duty last year and I’d expect more of the same. They say a knuckleballer doesn’t start entering his prime until age 30 or so (see Wakefield, Tim and Dickey, R.A.) so Sox fans might be pleasantly surprised by his performance. When Rodriguez comes back Wright will provide flexibility to the bullpen as a long reliever.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DL) – Eddie dislocated his right kneecap on February 27 and began throwing bullpen sessions mid-March so he is about a month behind. Tough break for the young lefty. He said he worked tirelessly on not tipping his pitches and getting his mechanics correct this offseason, and must be anxious to get back on the mound and put that whole fiasco to bed. Taking out his four awful starts where he surrendered 9, 6, 7, and 8 runs while never making it past the 5th inning, Rodriguez allowed 0 to 2 earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts. The other two starts he gave up 3 ER. If the pitch tipping was truly the driver behind those outlier starts, we could all be in for a treat.

Summary: If things break right this could be one of the top three rotations in baseball in terms of 1-5 depth. But that’s obviously a BIG “if”, seeing as we’re talking about one sure thing and four varying-sized question marks.

Relievers

Craig Kimbrel – You should be excited about this guy. He has a career ERA of 1.63 and a WHIP under 1. Dominance incarnate. As great as Koji has been for the Red Sox, Kimbrel is better and younger. Although, it’ll be hard to top Koji’s personality and the way Fenway lit up when his entrance music started playing. Kimbrel’s entrance song is Welcome to the Jungle, which fondly reminds me of the early aughts Celtics, but is a little played out.

Koji Uehara – Koji will look to come back strong after an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. Yes, he “lost” the closer role, but only in the same way that a father lion passes leadership of the pride to a younger, more fit cub from his own litter. The former alpha will still play an important, but different, role in the new-look ‘pen: set-up man. The circle of life. (Note: I think in the animal kingdom the lion is the leader of the pride until a stronger male kills him. Maybe not the best analogy.) Am I worried about Koji’s relative ineffectiveness in non-save situations over the last few seasons? No.

Well yeah, a little.

Junichi Tazawa – After being a stalwart in the back end of the bullpen in ’13 and ’14, Taz had a rough ’15 campaign. On the surface, his numbers were shockingly pedestrian: 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, giving up 65 hits in 58.2 innings. If you dig deeper though, his season wasn’t as bad as it seems. His BB/9 dropped and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) only slightly increased according to Baseball-Reference, and slightly dropped according to FanGraphs. In English: he got a little bit unlucky. To the naked eye, it did seem like Taz got hit harder than normal, but either way, I’d expect Junichi’s ERA to be closer to 3 than 4 in 2016.

Tommy Layne – This guy had an interesting season. I was never excited when he was coming in, but I also wasn’t dreading it à la Jean Machi. It turns out as a lefty specialist, Tommy quietly had an excellent ’15 season. Because he wasn’t used exclusively as a specialist, this gets lost in his overall numbers (3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).

mycousinvinny

HOWEVA: Lefties batted just .148 against Layne last year. To my befuddlement, he actually faced more righties than lefties, and righties tuned him up, slashing .322/.433/.517. Let’s hope he’s used exclusively as a lefty specialist this season. (“Lefty specialist” would be a great nickname for Lefty’s psychiatrist. Or girlfriend.)

Robbie Ross Jr. – Another solid lefty out of the ‘pen. Like Layne, Ross is better against lefties, but wasn’t used as a specialist last year: he faced 1.5X more righties than lefties. But unlike Layne, Ross’s splits weren’t as dramatic, with righties hitting .272 and lefties hitting .224 off of RRJ. I’d expect more of the same.

Matt Barnes – Barnes had a shaky 2015 campaign over a few stints in Boston, amassing an ERA of 5.23 in 30 relief appearances and 2 starts. But like many Red Sox, he had a fantastic September, giving up just one run in 9 appearances. Matt will be jockeying with Noe Ramriez to keep his spot once Carson Smith gets healthy.

Noe Ramirez – Noe gives you a different look out of the bullpen, as he’s somewhat of a sidewinder. He was ineffective in his first call-up in July, but had a solid September. Noe is most likely the guy who will a ticket down the Merloni Expressway when Carson Smith comes back, but he has the opportunity to outpitch Matt Barnes and stay with the big club. It might be tough if he’s relegated to mop-up duty. I’m not sure where else he’d slot in, seeing as he sits behind Taz and Koji as mid-inning RHP options.

Carson Smith (DL) – Another new face, and another great pickup by Dombrowski and crew. He strained his forearm this spring, but it doesn’t seem serious. Last year, in his first full season in the bigs, he posted a 2.31 ERA, striking out 92 batters in 70 innings. You can’t win in today’s MLB without a dominant bullpen, and the combination of Kimbrel, Koji, Carson, and Taz will make life hell for the opposition in innings 6-9.

Summary: When Smith comes back, the bullpen should be among the league’s best (in line, but maybe not quite as good as the Yankees and Royals).

Bonus:

James Shields – This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the rumored Sandoval-for-Shields swap. Shields is another ex-Rays pitcher who always seemed like a punk, and I was relieved when the Sox didn’t sign him last offseason. But that was then and this is now. If the Sox could unload Sandoval and his -1 WAR for a guy who is almost a lock to toss 200 innings with a sub-4 ERA, then sign me up.