We’re a day away from the start of the season (jumping right into interleague play – is that normal? I feel like that’s not normal) and the team is finalized. A couple dudes got sent down (Castillo, Bradley,etc.) and it’s time for us to do a Red Sox roster breakdown.
CATCHERS
Ryan Hanigan – Look, this isn’t ideal. We brought him in to be the backup, and here we are. This is a guy who’s batted .208 over the past two years. It’s not good. He’s 34, so we’re probably not looking at a career resurrection here. But the optimist in me thinks there’s a chance we get .240 or better and some solid defense out of him if he catches half the season. Over two years from 2012 to 2013 with CIncinnati, Hanigan threw out 47 of 99 runners. That’s really fucking good. On the other hand, last year he threw out 8 of 38 (that’s really fucking bad). Worst of all, Middlebrooks is raking in San Diego right now. He’d better crap the bed once he has to play in Petco. – Lefty
Sandy León – Traded a washing machine for this guy once Vázquez was out long-term. He has some upside, but he didn’t fit in with the Nationals, slotting behind Wilson Ramos and José Lobatón. He can’t really hit, but he does it from both sides of the plate. His career numbers in the minors are pretty good defensively. If you type his name into YouTube, the first result is a video that just says “Ground out.” – Lefty
INFIELDERS
Mike Napoli (1B) – Despite amassing 500 plate appearances, Nap was never fully healthy in 2014, battling a slew of injuries that kept him from performing at a high level. Combine that with the fact that the dude hadn’t dreamt in EIGHT YEARS due to his sleep apnea, and it’s no surprise that he had his lowest OPS since 2010 (.789) and a career low slugging percentage (.419). Thanks to a few surgeries, Napoli finally looks to be healthy entering the season. He’s dreaming with regularity, has ten straight fingers, and is lifting weights without feeling like he wants to die afterwards. He slugged 6 homers this spring, and I expect him to continue to rake once the season starts. – Righty
Dustin Pedroia (2B) – Pedey might quietly be one of the keys to the Red Sox 2015 campaign (the rotation obviously being the other). Similar to Napoli, Pedroia was bothered by a nagging injury last year (wrist) that had given him problems in the past, and required off-season surgery to fix. 2014 saw Dustin post career lows in almost every major offensive category. The wrist sapped his power and really hampered his ability to turn on inside pitches and keep them fair (the ones he did turn on, he hooked foul). If he can return to form and hold down the 2-hole, this Sox lineup will be downright scary. He’s been talking shit to Shaughnessy (and anyone else who will listen) about how great he’s going to be this year. Good sign. And of course, Pedey will play Gold Glove defense, sacrifice his body, and make you say “wow” almost nightly. – Righty
Xander Bogaerts (SS) – After being a vital piece of the Sox 2013 playoff and World Series run, it was a rough 2014 campaign for the X-man. He showed flashes of brilliance, especially towards the end of the season (encouraging), but overall he posted meager offensive numbers while playing subpar defense. Not a winning combination, especially given the importance of his position to the team’s overall defense. HOWEVER. Given the strength of the starting 9, Xander should slot in around #7 in the order, taking a lot of pressure off his shoulders. Something would have to go terribly wrong for Bogaerts to not post significantly better offensive numbers. More cause for optimism: he’s still just 22, and reports out of the Fort cite Xander’s improved first step, range, and overall defensive instincts. This should make the Red Sox groundball-happy pitching staff smile. – Righty
Pablo Sandoval (3B) – Everyone knows the story here. His OPS has fallen for three straight years, but he still brings the noise in the playoffs, having won a WS ring in two of those three years of decline. Sox are hoping for a return to form offensively (seems like we’ve found a common theme amongst these infielders) for the big man who’s a surprisingly good defender at the hot corner. Cherington is hoping the next 2-3 years of production justify the money guaranteed to a hefty man seemingly already in decline. The Kung Fu Panda is sure to be a fan favorite, so be prepared to bear (get it?) with lots of kids wearing panda hats. I’m sure John Henry has some promotion in mind featuring the Fenway green paint and bamboo. Or something, I don’t know, I’m not Jackie Moon, you come up with something better. – Righty
Brock Holt (1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) – Everyone’s favorite Matt Damon lookalike. The consummate professional (utility) player. A sparkplug. A dynamo. Did you know he finished 8th in Rookie of the Year voting last year?? Probably not, but you do now! It’s natural to expect a regression from the Brock Star, as he showed signs of slowing down even before his injury in September. Inconsistent playing time and competing for at-bats with not only the Sox’ starters, but also their stacked bench, will make it difficult for him to duplicate last year’s early-season success. But a trade of Craig/Nava/Victorino could help him get more consistent reps. I don’t see the Sox moving their most versatile bench player. – Righty
OUTFIELDERS
Hanley Ramirez (LF) – An old friend whose career has (sort of) come full circle. After ceasing to be the heir apparent to Nomar when he was traded in the Beckett/Lowell deal, Hanley has had his ups and downs. Incredible production mixed with inconsistent health and some off-the-field/attitude issues. Like Sandoval, the front office is banking on the first 2-3 years of this contract offsetting the back end. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to playing the outfield for the first time in his career (playing in front of the Monster to boot). Given his athleticism and his ability to play a decent short throughout his career, he should be fine. If he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be batting 3rd or 4th and producing all year. – Righty
Mookie Betts (CF) – I keep trying to temper my expectations on Mookie, especially given the performance of recent rookie phenoms (coughJBJcoughXandercough), but I just can’t do it. Seems like the dude always squares up the ball, can hit it with authority to all fields, and rarely looks bad on a pitch. Despite playing just 52 games last year, he was 5th on the team in WAR. As a natural infielder, there will be a bit of a learning curve as he gets used to playing center field. During spring training, the Sox had him playing shallow so he could work on tracking balls directly over his head, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on when the season starts. He should benefit from having Shane Victorino playing next to him in right (at least to start the year). But seriously, we shouldn’t expect too much, the kid’s just 22 years old. Let’s just hope he’s ready and we don’t have another JBJ situation on our hands. – Righty
Shane Victorino (RF) – What can you say about Shane? I love the guy. We’ll always have 2013. Hearing all of Fenway sing Three Little Birds before a crucial at-bat in a series where he couldn’t hit a Henry Rowengartner underhanded lob, and then watching him hit a grand slam on an 0-2 pitch still gives me goosebumps.
But that doesn’t change the fact that he’s our 4th best option in the outfield. Farrell said, “You don’t lose your job due to injury.” I agree with that somewhat, but I feel like that applies much more if it’s an in-season thing. The Sox signed Castillo to play in the majors now, and even with his oblique injury, he’s outperformed Victorino this spring, hitting over .300 and routinely making highlight reel plays in the field, while Shane hit below the Mendoza line. Granted, spring training numbers mean next to nothing, but it’s still a bit of a head-scratcher to show this much loyalty to an aging veteran. If he’s performing early, look for him to be shipped off to a contender. If not, this could get ugly. – Righty
Allen Craig (1B, OF) – Craig was an All-Star in 2013. In 2014 he was … not. It would almost be mean to post his numbers, especially after he got to the Sox (.191 SLG, that hurt just to type). Needless to say, he has nowhere to go but up from last year’s abysmal campaign. Another guy who’s gonna struggle to get consistent at-bats given the Sox’ talent and depth. This will make it tougher to demonstrate his value for a potential trade, but you’d certainly think he has to be the #1 candidate to be moved. – Righty
Daniel Nava (1B, OF) – One of my personal favorite players. After an atrocious start to 2014 and a trip down to the minors, Nava was one of the Red Sox’ best players upon his return to the big club. He posted a 3.3 WAR in 113 games, good for second amongst hitters on the team, behind only Pedroia. Nava (or “Thumb Faced Idiot,” as he’s affectionately known around these parts) can play multiple positions and is patient at the plate, but may not be as attractive to other teams as Craig, a known commodity. The most interesting storyline of his season will be the possibility of his abandoning switch-hitting. Nava has been much better from the left side in his career (.293/.385/.428 vs RHP, and .209/.287/.298 vs LHP), although he has about 1/4 as many ABs against lefties. I doubt we’ll get many chances to see him hit lefty against a lefty, but if we do…it could be cool. – Righty
DESIGNATED HITTERS
David Ortiz – “This is our fucking city,” complaining about money, clutch hit after clutch hit, complaining about steroids, three World Series wins, complaining about RBI attribution…Papi’s the man, and I couldn’t care less about the complaining. It just makes him more entertaining. Last year, though, was a slight dip down from the consistency of the previous three years, and as Ortiz nears 40, the possibility of that dip becoming a trend looms large. Even though he hit 35 home runs, he also had his lowest ever number of extra base hits in a season with over 600 at-bats. Then again, everyone thought he was done after 2009, right? Whoops. Side note: I will never get tired of Ortiz’s swing when he pulls a homer to right field. How fucking great is that? – Lefty
STARTING PITCHERS
Clay Buchholz – He looks the part of a lanky, dirty ace. I want him to be good so badly. But in 7+ seasons, we’ve got about a season and a half of great and the rest has ranged from good (2011) to diarrhea (2014). He’s got his fastball, he’s got his cutter. His curveball’s the only offspeed pitch he throws with regularity. He’s been okay this spring. We really just won’t know until tomorrow. Get ready to grit your teeth. – Lefty
Rick Porcello – He’ll usually throw a sinker and pitch to contact. After Scherzer, he was Detroit’s second-best option last year. Well, I’d take Anibal Sanchez over him, but he was hurt half the season. He pitched 200 innings for the first time last year, but he’s also never pitched less than 162 or started less than 27 games. So he grinds. The goal, I guess, with picking up the three free agent starters, was to reach for 550-600 innings of sub-4.00 ERA pitching. That’s the dream. But Porcello is probably looking at a regression to somewhere around 4.50. – Lefty
Justin Masterson – The prodigal son returns! If you want to look at Masterson with any sort of positivity, you’re going to have to completely erase last year. Pretend it never happened. It was an unqualified disaster. But from 2011 to 2013, Masterson (another sinkerballer, actually) averaged over 200 innings a year, and in 2013, he put up over a strikeout per inning, moving on from a more contact-oriented approach and making the All-Star team. Personally, I’m a big Masterson guy, mostly because he’s been really helpful for my fantasy team over the past couple years. I realize that this means I’m an idiot. This undeserved love also applies to the next man up in the rotation… – Lefty
Wade Miley – Another fantasy stalwart of mine. Dude eats innings. Is it possible that Cherington has just been bugging my computer over the last few years and decided that now is the time to steal my fantasy team’s strategy? Yeah, I think so too. Miley’s main pitch is also a sinker (I’m beginning to sense a trend). He upped his K rate to 8.2/9 innings in 2014 from 6.5/9 in 2013. Barring injury, he’s going to give this rotation around 200 innings, as he’s done every year since his rookie season. Same old story as the other two free agent signings, basically. Except I actually feel better about Miley than the other two guys. I love him. That said, he’s moving from the NL to the AL, so if he sucks, I accept no responsibility. – Lefty
Joe Kelly – The would-be 5th member of the rotation, he’ll start the year on the DL. After a rough start, he was pretty…pretty…pretty good for the Sox in the second half of 2014. Hey, guess what pitch he throws the most? Yeah, a sinker. I think it’s safe to say that Cherington designed this rotation to give the infield a ton of chances. An infield that’s made up of one Gold Glover, one very good third baseman, one former catcher, and one big question mark in Xander Bogaerts. He can’t really be that bad, can he? Anyway, Kelly throws gas, which is fun to watch. He should be fine as a 5th starter. A step up over Doubront in any case. – Lefty
Steven Wright – He’s likely just making a spot start, so he’ll either be lights out and make everyone miss Tim Wakefield or he’ll get lit up and make everyone miss Tim Wakefield. Baseball is weird: Wright was drafted in the 2nd round (!) in 2006, switched to the knuckleball in 2011, and is now 30 years old. His Twitter handle is @Knucklepuck23. He seems like a pretty cool guy. – Lefty
RELIEF PITCHERS
Koji Uehara – It starts and ends with Koji, obviously. High five city!
Everyone’s favorite 1-2-3 inning closer unfortunately also has a nasty habit of giving up home runs (10 in 2014), and his season went off the rails in August last year. He gives up a lot of fly balls anyway, but when his stuff isn’t 100%, one-run leads just aren’t as safe as they appear. That said, when he’s on, there’s no one I’d rather have closing out games. – Lefty
Edward Mujica – In one word: streaky. Not the ideal word to describe a closer. From April to August 2013 for the Cardinals, he was one of the best closers in baseball, despite not having electric stuff. But in September, the lack of strikeouts caught up to him (or his luck just ran out), and he managed an 11.05 ERA over 10 appearances. The most impressive part of this was that he actually earned two saves. Maybe he hadn’t gotten his confidence back yet, but when April 2014 rolled around and he found himself in a Red Sox uniform, he was still…just…awful, putting up a 10.00 ERA in 10 appearances. But by the end of the season, he’d cobbled together a 3.90 ERA, including a period from August to September when he was essentially untouchable (1.71 ERA) just as the wheels came off of Koji. So basically, who knows with this guy? – Lefty
Junichi Tazawa – Tazawa is my boy. I won’t hear a word against him. He had a rough July last year, but was great pretty much the whole time apart from that. He throws hard and has a good splitter. You can absolutely go to war with Junichi as your setup man. – Lefty
Craig Breslow – Ah yes, the old lefty Connecticut nerd Ivy League journeyman. Everyone knows that old cliché. He was lousy last year, and there’s really no way around it. He had the worst WHIP of his entire career. Until and unless he struggles this year, though, I’m hesitant to say that he’s washed up. Let’s chalk 2014 up to an outlier (hopefully for more than just Craig Breslow). – Lefty
Alexi Ogando – He’s got starter caliber stuff somewhere, it’s just a question of finding it. His ERA last year seems flukish, he’s not a 5.00+ ERA kind of guy. He’ll need to get back to his 2012 form (58 appearances, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.0 K/9) to give the Sox some glue in the bullpen. – Lefty
Tommy Layne – Okay, we’re officially in the “Who?” section of the roster. But as the Red Sox’ season crumbled around him last year, Layne put up a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings over 30 appearances. He probably won’t do that again, but as a lefty specialist, he seems fully capable of putting up something sub-3.00 for ERA. He won’t miss as many bats as Andrew Miller, but on the bright side, he’s not Andrew Miller. – Lefty
Anthony Varvaro – He’s coming off two good seasons with the Braves in relief. He brought his strikeout rate way up from 2013 to 2014, and he relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it about 60% of the time. It seems like an increase in the use of his curveball and changeup might have been a contributing factor to his K/9 rate’s improvement. Honestly, I know as much as or less about him than you do, so cut me some slack. This is a learning experience for all of us, jeez. Dude looks legit though. – Lefty
Robbie Ross, Jr. – Unless Anthony Ranaudo suddenly clicks in the Rangers’ system, this looks like a nice little trade that could pay off for Cherington. He’s a young 25 who’d been really solid and effective for the Rangers over two seasons of relief. Last year, they asked him to start and things kind of went to shit. Not that he was any better in relief appearances, but still. The advanced stats indicate that he wasn’t as bad as his terrible ERA (6.20), and at the very least, he’s another lefty arm for the bullpen and should be able to provide some solid long relief. – Lefty
BONUS – MINOR LEAGUERS
Rusney Castillo (OF) – Touched on this in Victorino’s write-up, but Castillo is in his prime right now. He’s 27 and the Sox are paying him $11.2 million this year, so it’s baffling that this guy isn’t starting in right field, especially given his spring performance. Why would the Red Sox want to waste part of a prime season (and money) by sending him down for an aging, injury-prone vet? If they’re hoping Victorino gets hurt or hits .400 in April and people wanna throw prospects at us I’d say it’s a pretty foolish plan. Look for a call-up at the first possible opportunity. – Righty
Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF) – I ripped JBJ a little in Mookie’s write-up, but the truth is I love the guy. He’s the best defensive outfielder alive right now (yeah, you read that right). My man is 5’10” and 200lbs (a generous listing) and can throw the ball OVER the centerfield wall at Fenway from behind home plate.
If he can hit .250 he’s an extremely valuable player, and I believe he can do it. He’s selective and willing to hit the ball to all fields. For what it’s worth, he hit .378 this spring, making it less likely that his stellar spring that got us all excited two years ago was a fluke, but he’s yet to figure it out at the big-league level. He will be with the big club at some point in the season, and if more than one of Craig/Victorino/Nava gets moved or hurt, he should fill that depth outfielder spot. – Righty
Blake Swihart (C) – After Vázquez’s unfortunate injury (another guy I was really high on), people wondered whether Boston would accelerate Blake’s timetable and perhaps have him break camp with the big club. Again, possibly hoping to avoid another JBJ situation, the Red Sox quickly put an end to that talk by acquiring León. But given the fact that Hanigan and León are both light hitters, don’t be surprised if Swihart gets a call-up sooner rather than later. His defensive game still needs to come around, but the kid can hit. Learning under a good defender like Hanigan could help make the transition a little smoother. – Righty
Brandon Workman – I just can’t imagine that we’re going to get through the 2015 season without seeing him. Just to give us some more workmanlike performances. Okay, I’ll admit that was the only reason I included him in this. Sorry. – Lefty
Look how smudge the guy wearing the oxford blue in the cover pic is.
If I had seen that I definitely would’ve cut him out
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