2016 Red Sox Pitching Primer


While it stinks on ice that the first game of 2016 was postponed, it has given Lefty and I a chance to get our acts together and get you some player-by-player previews. In case you’re running as far behind as we are, here’s a cheat sheet to help you get up to speed on the 2016 Boston Red Sox pitching staff.

Before we start though I’d like to share this quote about Opening Day from our old friend Tito Francona that brought a tear to my eye:

“It’s one of the most amazing feelings there is,” he said. “I’ve been doing this for a long time because I’m getting older. I’m not sure how something can be the same over and over and over and over again and yet be so wonderful. There’s a lot excitement. There’s certainly some anxiety. There’s probably a small piece of terror. Did we cover everything? Things like that. But it’s the same every year. It never changes. I hope it doesn’t. It’s a great feeling.”

Amen, Terry. Amen.

Starters

David Price (Ace) – Listen, I’ve never been a David Price fan. He always seemed soft, sensitive to criticism, weak in the postseason, and had a habit at throwing at Big Papi – a childhood (and adulthood) hero of mine. I imagine it gets very frustrating when a hitter treats you like an old dirty rug, but you don’t start acting like a little bitch (Papi’s words) and throw at Dominican Santa Claus. But they seem to have made up.

Ortiz And Price

In any case, last year I talked myself into Clay Buchholz being a true ace (more on that in a second), but I feel much better this year. Price is a perennial Cy Young award candidate and has had a WHIP of 1.1 or under five out of the last six seasons. He’s a true top-of-the rotation starter, just what the doctor ordered.

Clay Buchholz – You all know the story here: a great #2 starter (altogether now) if he stays healthy. This has been a struggle for Clay throughout his career. No one questions his stuff, but his ability to stay on the mound and log significant innings is always a huge question mark. He’s never started 30 games or logged 190IP in one season. The last two times he came close he had ERAs of 4.56 and 5.34 in 2012 and 2014 respectively. I don’t know if he’s pitching hurt in those seasons, or he sacrifices effectiveness for longevity. Clay might be the biggest X factor of this iteration of the Red Sox, and may be the difference between the Sox making or missing the playoffs. If he can log 180 innings with a sub-4 ERA, the Sox will be in great shape.

Rick Porcello – Can’t be worse than last year.

Realistically though I’m optimistic for a bounceback season. Freddy was trending in the right direction in the latter half of 2015. After he surrendered 7 earned runs in 2 innings on July 1 to ballon his ERA to 6.08, Porcello would post an ERA of 3.49 over his final 12 starts of the season (with a trip to the minors mixed in). His biggest problem was the gopherball: he surrendered a whopping 25 last year in 172 innings. There was chatter around the organization that he had become enamored with the strikeout, and as a result was leaving pitches up in the zone, instead of pounding the bottom of the zone with the sinker. Keys to his season: keeping the ball in the yard and having a high groundball rate. He’s been exceptionally durable throughout his career.

Joe “Pumpsie” Kelly – Complete wildcard. He has electric stuff – probably the best of anyone on the staff. Similar to Porcello, Kelly gave Sox fans reason for hope at the end of his 2015 campaign. After giving up 5 earned in 5 innings, bumping his ERA to an unsightly 6.11 on August 1, Kelly would post a 2.35 ERA in his final 8 starts, and win his final 8 decisions before getting shut down in mid-September due to injury. It would be foolish to expect him to resume that pace in 2016, but Joe could reasonably be expected to settle into a the role of an above average #5 starter. He could also reasonably be expected to implode and get moved to the bullpen or demoted.

Steven Wright – The knuckleballer gets the nod as the temporary 5th starter thanks to the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez. Steven was solid in spot-start duty last year and I’d expect more of the same. They say a knuckleballer doesn’t start entering his prime until age 30 or so (see Wakefield, Tim and Dickey, R.A.) so Sox fans might be pleasantly surprised by his performance. When Rodriguez comes back Wright will provide flexibility to the bullpen as a long reliever.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DL) – Eddie dislocated his right kneecap on February 27 and began throwing bullpen sessions mid-March so he is about a month behind. Tough break for the young lefty. He said he worked tirelessly on not tipping his pitches and getting his mechanics correct this offseason, and must be anxious to get back on the mound and put that whole fiasco to bed. Taking out his four awful starts where he surrendered 9, 6, 7, and 8 runs while never making it past the 5th inning, Rodriguez allowed 0 to 2 earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts. The other two starts he gave up 3 ER. If the pitch tipping was truly the driver behind those outlier starts, we could all be in for a treat.

Summary: If things break right this could be one of the top three rotations in baseball in terms of 1-5 depth. But that’s obviously a BIG “if”, seeing as we’re talking about one sure thing and four varying-sized question marks.

Relievers

Craig Kimbrel – You should be excited about this guy. He has a career ERA of 1.63 and a WHIP under 1. Dominance incarnate. As great as Koji has been for the Red Sox, Kimbrel is better and younger. Although, it’ll be hard to top Koji’s personality and the way Fenway lit up when his entrance music started playing. Kimbrel’s entrance song is Welcome to the Jungle, which fondly reminds me of the early aughts Celtics, but is a little played out.

Koji Uehara – Koji will look to come back strong after an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. Yes, he “lost” the closer role, but only in the same way that a father lion passes leadership of the pride to a younger, more fit cub from his own litter. The former alpha will still play an important, but different, role in the new-look ‘pen: set-up man. The circle of life. (Note: I think in the animal kingdom the lion is the leader of the pride until a stronger male kills him. Maybe not the best analogy.) Am I worried about Koji’s relative ineffectiveness in non-save situations over the last few seasons? No.

Well yeah, a little.

Junichi Tazawa – After being a stalwart in the back end of the bullpen in ’13 and ’14, Taz had a rough ’15 campaign. On the surface, his numbers were shockingly pedestrian: 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, giving up 65 hits in 58.2 innings. If you dig deeper though, his season wasn’t as bad as it seems. His BB/9 dropped and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) only slightly increased according to Baseball-Reference, and slightly dropped according to FanGraphs. In English: he got a little bit unlucky. To the naked eye, it did seem like Taz got hit harder than normal, but either way, I’d expect Junichi’s ERA to be closer to 3 than 4 in 2016.

Tommy Layne – This guy had an interesting season. I was never excited when he was coming in, but I also wasn’t dreading it à la Jean Machi. It turns out as a lefty specialist, Tommy quietly had an excellent ’15 season. Because he wasn’t used exclusively as a specialist, this gets lost in his overall numbers (3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).

mycousinvinny

HOWEVA: Lefties batted just .148 against Layne last year. To my befuddlement, he actually faced more righties than lefties, and righties tuned him up, slashing .322/.433/.517. Let’s hope he’s used exclusively as a lefty specialist this season. (“Lefty specialist” would be a great nickname for Lefty’s psychiatrist. Or girlfriend.)

Robbie Ross Jr. – Another solid lefty out of the ‘pen. Like Layne, Ross is better against lefties, but wasn’t used as a specialist last year: he faced 1.5X more righties than lefties. But unlike Layne, Ross’s splits weren’t as dramatic, with righties hitting .272 and lefties hitting .224 off of RRJ. I’d expect more of the same.

Matt Barnes – Barnes had a shaky 2015 campaign over a few stints in Boston, amassing an ERA of 5.23 in 30 relief appearances and 2 starts. But like many Red Sox, he had a fantastic September, giving up just one run in 9 appearances. Matt will be jockeying with Noe Ramriez to keep his spot once Carson Smith gets healthy.

Noe Ramirez – Noe gives you a different look out of the bullpen, as he’s somewhat of a sidewinder. He was ineffective in his first call-up in July, but had a solid September. Noe is most likely the guy who will a ticket down the Merloni Expressway when Carson Smith comes back, but he has the opportunity to outpitch Matt Barnes and stay with the big club. It might be tough if he’s relegated to mop-up duty. I’m not sure where else he’d slot in, seeing as he sits behind Taz and Koji as mid-inning RHP options.

Carson Smith (DL) – Another new face, and another great pickup by Dombrowski and crew. He strained his forearm this spring, but it doesn’t seem serious. Last year, in his first full season in the bigs, he posted a 2.31 ERA, striking out 92 batters in 70 innings. You can’t win in today’s MLB without a dominant bullpen, and the combination of Kimbrel, Koji, Carson, and Taz will make life hell for the opposition in innings 6-9.

Summary: When Smith comes back, the bullpen should be among the league’s best (in line, but maybe not quite as good as the Yankees and Royals).

Bonus:

James Shields – This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the rumored Sandoval-for-Shields swap. Shields is another ex-Rays pitcher who always seemed like a punk, and I was relieved when the Sox didn’t sign him last offseason. But that was then and this is now. If the Sox could unload Sandoval and his -1 WAR for a guy who is almost a lock to toss 200 innings with a sub-4 ERA, then sign me up.

Comments are closed.

  1. Paul Zeidan

    1) Welcome back, as a newbie to Sox ball, I could use all the tutorials available.
    2) I’m partial to lefty pitchers and Price, with that smooth, simple delivery will exceed expectations this season. Just my prediction, but from what I see, he isn’t laboring, and his mechanics are sound.
    3) Never thought I’d be this excited for a new season!

    1. Righty *

      Thanks Paul! Yeah Price’s delivery is pretty, there’s zero wasted motion.
      It’s a pretty cruel joke to have to wait all this time for regular season baseball, just to have it pushed back another day!

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