What it looks like over Cleveland right now. Probably.
For the 2nd time in 4 days, a Red Sox game has been postponed. CLEVELAND!!!
It’s also 1:43 in the morning right now, so I’m going to try to keep this short and sweet. Just a couple things to go over.
John Farrell has decided to run through the full rotation for the first go-around despite the most recent postponement. That means we’re getting Joe Kelly (somehow a #3 starter!), Rick Porcello, and Steven Wright for the next 3 games in Toronto and oh shit, it’s like I slipped into a fever dream from summer 2015. On the one hand, maybe it’s a good decision for continuity purposes and to get everyone into the swing of things. On the other hand, Farrell is basically flipping a coin with Wright rather than handing the ball to David Price for the Toronto series finale. And on the other other hand, the Sox will now use their ace in the home opener at Fenway. IT’S A CONSPIRACY, MAN. JOHN HENRY CONTROLS THE WEATHER.
There’s either not much to say yet about this team, or I’m really tired, or both. I just stared at the screen for 2 minutes while yawning and chuckling to myself about Pablo Sandoval being 0 for 1 so far this year.
RICH HILL UPDATE: Dude had a tough first day. He hit Adam Eaton with the first pitch of the game. Then he hit Jose Abreu later in the inning. And he got through that without giving up a run, and he had a clean 2nd inning, but then he gave up a triple, a single, and a double, and there were 2 errors (one by Hill), and he got yanked. Not his best, but I’m not convinced he’s out of gas yet.
I was going to come up with good, bad, and ugly sections, but I can’t think of anything notable to say for good and bad. So I’ll just do…
UGLY: I still haven’t written anything about the infielders, so both of our fans will have to wait until the weekend for my EXPERT INSIGHTS.
Your 2016 Boston Red Sox starting outfield. (Jim Davis/Globe Staff)
The Starters
Left Field
Brock Holt
2015: 129 games (58 at 2B, 33 at 3B, 20 at RF, 8 at LF, 7 at SS, 5 at 1B, 2 at CF, 1 at DH), .280/.349/.379, 2 HRs, 8 SBs (1 CS), made 1st All-Star Game.
The Brock Star’s propensity for excellent production before the All-Star break and a precipitous decline afterwards carried itself to its logical conclusion last year. He earned an I-shit-you-not All-Star nod on the strength of his utility player heroics and .791 OPS, and then not-unexpectedly crashed down to Earth with a very pedestrian .653 OPS the rest of the way.
I guess what I’m saying is that you could do much worse than Holt as an opening day left fielder, but he’s probably better suited to fill in at other spots once injuries inevitably come into play. And that means a certain 27-year-old Cuban would-be phenom is going to have to step up.
Center Field
Jackie Bradley, Jr.
2015: 74 games (32 at RF, 27 at CF, 17 at LF), .249/.335/.498, 10 HRs, 3 SBs (0 CS)
That’s right, it’s everyone’s favorite mercurially talented outfielder, hopefully ready to finally lay claim to his rightful everyday spot in Boston’s outfield. When he’s not making catches at the wall look routine or throwing the ball from home plate over the center field wall for kicks and giggles, he could either be found going 5 for 40 (see May through July) or looking like Willie Mays’ secret mutant son (see August). This is a guy who had 55 hits last year, and most of them were for extra bases. So yeah. He could be pretty good.
Right Field
Mookie Betts
2015: 145 games (133 at CF, 11 at RF, 1 at DH), .291/.341/.479, 18 HRs, 21 SBs (6 CS), 19th in MVP voting.
Mookie slashed his way into the hearts and minds of Sox fans last year despite the team’s dreadful overall performance. He’s one of maybe 2 or 3 players that I think of as untouchable (in terms of trade discussions), and it’s as much for his bat as for stuff like this:
Yeah, he’s tremendous. If both he and Bradley can come close to their performances at the plate in the 2nd half of 2015 – well, that would probably be too much to hope for, but it would be amazing. And it’s hard not to feel good about Betts in right field. He’s already proven that he’s more than capable of handling center, and it’s no slight against him that Bradley is a better fit for center field. Mookie is an incredible athlete, but he’s also a converted second baseman. And JBJ is a savant.
The Bench
Rusney Castillo
2015: 75 games (48 at RF, 24 at LF, 6 at CF, 2 at DH), .253/.288/.359, 5 HRs, 4 SBs (5 CS)
Not a super showing for Rusney last year, and that performance combined with his struggles this spring have led to Brock Holt starting in left field. So far, he can’t really run, he doesn’t walk, he doesn’t slug, he doesn’t hit for average, he plays okay defense, and he’s 28 years old. I’d say it’s now or never, except that the Sox are due to pay him $11 million a year for the next 4 years. Oh boy.
Chris Young
2015: 140 games (76 at RF, 55 at LF, 15 at CF, 2 at DH), .252/.320/.453, 14 HRs, 3 SBs (1 CS)
A Yankee last year, Young is a pretty durable guy, having played at least 100 games every year since 2007. He was an All-Star in 2010 for Arizona, and hey, you know, he’s pretty good. He had the 5th best fielding percentage among AL outfielders last year. You could do much, MUCH worse than Young as a backup outfielder. And we have (see Craig, Allen).
Stay tuned for more roster analysis over the next couple days as we scratch and claw to make this blog look respectable.
While it stinks on ice that the first game of 2016 was postponed, it has given Lefty and I a chance to get our acts together and get you some player-by-player previews. In case you’re running as far behind as we are, here’s a cheat sheet to help you get up to speed on the 2016 Boston Red Sox pitching staff.
Before we start though I’d like to share this quote about Opening Day from our old friend Tito Francona that brought a tear to my eye:
“It’s one of the most amazing feelings there is,” he said. “I’ve been doing this for a long time because I’m getting older. I’m not sure how something can be the same over and over and over and over again and yet be so wonderful. There’s a lot excitement. There’s certainly some anxiety. There’s probably a small piece of terror. Did we cover everything? Things like that. But it’s the same every year. It never changes. I hope it doesn’t. It’s a great feeling.”
Amen, Terry. Amen.
Starters
David Price (Ace) – Listen, I’ve never been a David Price fan. He always seemed soft, sensitive to criticism, weak in the postseason, and had a habit at throwing at Big Papi – a childhood (and adulthood) hero of mine. I imagine it gets very frustrating when a hitter treats you like an old dirty rug, but you don’t start acting like a little bitch (Papi’s words) and throw at Dominican Santa Claus. But they seem to have made up.
In any case, last year I talked myself into Clay Buchholz being a true ace (more on that in a second), but I feel much better this year. Price is a perennial Cy Young award candidate and has had a WHIP of 1.1 or under five out of the last six seasons. He’s a true top-of-the rotation starter, just what the doctor ordered.
Clay Buchholz – You all know the story here: a great #2 starter (altogether now) if he stays healthy. This has been a struggle for Clay throughout his career. No one questions his stuff, but his ability to stay on the mound and log significant innings is always a huge question mark. He’s never started 30 games or logged 190IP in one season. The last two times he came close he had ERAs of 4.56 and 5.34 in 2012 and 2014 respectively. I don’t know if he’s pitching hurt in those seasons, or he sacrifices effectiveness for longevity. Clay might be the biggest X factor of this iteration of the Red Sox, and may be the difference between the Sox making or missing the playoffs. If he can log 180 innings with a sub-4 ERA, the Sox will be in great shape.
Rick Porcello – Can’t be worse than last year.
Realistically though I’m optimistic for a bounceback season. Freddy was trending in the right direction in the latter half of 2015. After he surrendered 7 earned runs in 2 innings on July 1 to ballon his ERA to 6.08, Porcello would post an ERA of 3.49 over his final 12 starts of the season (with a trip to the minors mixed in). His biggest problem was the gopherball: he surrendered a whopping 25 last year in 172 innings. There was chatter around the organization that he had become enamored with the strikeout, and as a result was leaving pitches up in the zone, instead of pounding the bottom of the zone with the sinker. Keys to his season: keeping the ball in the yard and having a high groundball rate. He’s been exceptionally durable throughout his career.
Joe “Pumpsie” Kelly – Complete wildcard. He has electric stuff – probably the best of anyone on the staff. Similar to Porcello, Kelly gave Sox fans reason for hope at the end of his 2015 campaign. After giving up 5 earned in 5 innings, bumping his ERA to an unsightly 6.11 on August 1, Kelly would post a 2.35 ERA in his final 8 starts, and win his final 8 decisions before getting shut down in mid-September due to injury. It would be foolish to expect him to resume that pace in 2016, but Joe could reasonably be expected to settle into a the role of an above average #5 starter. He could also reasonably be expected to implode and get moved to the bullpen or demoted.
Steven Wright – The knuckleballer gets the nod as the temporary 5th starter thanks to the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez. Steven was solid in spot-start duty last year and I’d expect more of the same. They say a knuckleballer doesn’t start entering his prime until age 30 or so (see Wakefield, Tim and Dickey, R.A.) so Sox fans might be pleasantly surprised by his performance. When Rodriguez comes back Wright will provide flexibility to the bullpen as a long reliever.
Eduardo Rodriguez (DL) – Eddie dislocated his right kneecap on February 27 and began throwing bullpen sessions mid-March so he is about a month behind. Tough break for the young lefty. He said he worked tirelessly on not tipping his pitches and getting his mechanics correct this offseason, and must be anxious to get back on the mound and put that whole fiasco to bed. Taking out his four awful starts where he surrendered 9, 6, 7, and 8 runs while never making it past the 5th inning, Rodriguez allowed 0 to 2 earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts. The other two starts he gave up 3 ER. If the pitch tipping was truly the driver behind those outlier starts, we could all be in for a treat.
Summary: If things break right this could be one of the top three rotations in baseball in terms of 1-5 depth. But that’s obviously a BIG “if”, seeing as we’re talking about one sure thing and four varying-sized question marks.
Relievers
Craig Kimbrel – You should be excited about this guy. He has a career ERA of 1.63 and a WHIP under 1. Dominance incarnate. As great as Koji has been for the Red Sox, Kimbrel is better and younger. Although, it’ll be hard to top Koji’s personality and the way Fenway lit up when his entrance music started playing. Kimbrel’s entrance song is Welcome to the Jungle, which fondly reminds me of the early aughts Celtics, but is a little played out.
Koji Uehara – Koji will look to come back strong after an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. Yes, he “lost” the closer role, but only in the same way that a father lion passes leadership of the pride to a younger, more fit cub from his own litter. The former alpha will still play an important, but different, role in the new-look ‘pen: set-up man. The circle of life. (Note: I think in the animal kingdom the lion is the leader of the pride until a stronger male kills him. Maybe not the best analogy.) Am I worried about Koji’s relative ineffectiveness in non-save situations over the last few seasons? No.
Well yeah, a little.
Junichi Tazawa – After being a stalwart in the back end of the bullpen in ’13 and ’14, Taz had a rough ’15 campaign. On the surface, his numbers were shockingly pedestrian: 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, giving up 65 hits in 58.2 innings. If you dig deeper though, his season wasn’t as bad as it seems. His BB/9 dropped and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) only slightly increased according to Baseball-Reference, and slightly dropped according to FanGraphs. In English: he got a little bit unlucky. To the naked eye, it did seem like Taz got hit harder than normal, but either way, I’d expect Junichi’s ERA to be closer to 3 than 4 in 2016.
Tommy Layne – This guy had an interesting season. I was never excited when he was coming in, but I also wasn’t dreading it à la Jean Machi. It turns out as a lefty specialist, Tommy quietly had an excellent ’15 season. Because he wasn’t used exclusively as a specialist, this gets lost in his overall numbers (3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).
HOWEVA: Lefties batted just .148 against Layne last year. To my befuddlement, he actually faced more righties than lefties, and righties tuned him up, slashing .322/.433/.517. Let’s hope he’s used exclusively as a lefty specialist this season. (“Lefty specialist” would be a great nickname for Lefty’s psychiatrist. Or girlfriend.)
Robbie Ross Jr. – Another solid lefty out of the ‘pen. Like Layne, Ross is better against lefties, but wasn’t used as a specialist last year: he faced 1.5X more righties than lefties. But unlike Layne, Ross’s splits weren’t as dramatic, with righties hitting .272 and lefties hitting .224 off of RRJ. I’d expect more of the same.
Matt Barnes – Barnes had a shaky 2015 campaign over a few stints in Boston, amassing an ERA of 5.23 in 30 relief appearances and 2 starts. But like many Red Sox, he had a fantastic September, giving up just one run in 9 appearances. Matt will be jockeying with Noe Ramriez to keep his spot once Carson Smith gets healthy.
Noe Ramirez – Noe gives you a different look out of the bullpen, as he’s somewhat of a sidewinder. He was ineffective in his first call-up in July, but had a solid September. Noe is most likely the guy who will a ticket down the Merloni Expressway when Carson Smith comes back, but he has the opportunity to outpitch Matt Barnes and stay with the big club. It might be tough if he’s relegated to mop-up duty. I’m not sure where else he’d slot in, seeing as he sits behind Taz and Koji as mid-inning RHP options.
Carson Smith (DL) – Another new face, and another great pickup by Dombrowski and crew. He strained his forearm this spring, but it doesn’t seem serious. Last year, in his first full season in the bigs, he posted a 2.31 ERA, striking out 92 batters in 70 innings. You can’t win in today’s MLB without a dominant bullpen, and the combination of Kimbrel, Koji, Carson, and Taz will make life hell for the opposition in innings 6-9.
Summary: When Smith comes back, the bullpen should be among the league’s best (in line, but maybe not quite as good as the Yankees and Royals).
Bonus:
James Shields – This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the rumored Sandoval-for-Shields swap. Shields is another ex-Rays pitcher who always seemed like a punk, and I was relieved when the Sox didn’t sign him last offseason. But that was then and this is now. If the Sox could unload Sandoval and his -1 WAR for a guy who is almost a lock to toss 200 innings with a sub-4 ERA, then sign me up.
