Category: Players

2016 Red Sox Pitching Primer

Posted on April 4, 2016 in Players


While it stinks on ice that the first game of 2016 was postponed, it has given Lefty and I a chance to get our acts together and get you some player-by-player previews. In case you’re running as far behind as we are, here’s a cheat sheet to help you get up to speed on the 2016 Boston Red Sox pitching staff.

Before we start though I’d like to share this quote about Opening Day from our old friend Tito Francona that brought a tear to my eye:

“It’s one of the most amazing feelings there is,” he said. “I’ve been doing this for a long time because I’m getting older. I’m not sure how something can be the same over and over and over and over again and yet be so wonderful. There’s a lot excitement. There’s certainly some anxiety. There’s probably a small piece of terror. Did we cover everything? Things like that. But it’s the same every year. It never changes. I hope it doesn’t. It’s a great feeling.”

Amen, Terry. Amen.

Starters

David Price (Ace) – Listen, I’ve never been a David Price fan. He always seemed soft, sensitive to criticism, weak in the postseason, and had a habit at throwing at Big Papi – a childhood (and adulthood) hero of mine. I imagine it gets very frustrating when a hitter treats you like an old dirty rug, but you don’t start acting like a little bitch (Papi’s words) and throw at Dominican Santa Claus. But they seem to have made up.

Ortiz And Price

In any case, last year I talked myself into Clay Buchholz being a true ace (more on that in a second), but I feel much better this year. Price is a perennial Cy Young award candidate and has had a WHIP of 1.1 or under five out of the last six seasons. He’s a true top-of-the rotation starter, just what the doctor ordered.

Clay Buchholz – You all know the story here: a great #2 starter (altogether now) if he stays healthy. This has been a struggle for Clay throughout his career. No one questions his stuff, but his ability to stay on the mound and log significant innings is always a huge question mark. He’s never started 30 games or logged 190IP in one season. The last two times he came close he had ERAs of 4.56 and 5.34 in 2012 and 2014 respectively. I don’t know if he’s pitching hurt in those seasons, or he sacrifices effectiveness for longevity. Clay might be the biggest X factor of this iteration of the Red Sox, and may be the difference between the Sox making or missing the playoffs. If he can log 180 innings with a sub-4 ERA, the Sox will be in great shape.

Rick Porcello – Can’t be worse than last year.

Realistically though I’m optimistic for a bounceback season. Freddy was trending in the right direction in the latter half of 2015. After he surrendered 7 earned runs in 2 innings on July 1 to ballon his ERA to 6.08, Porcello would post an ERA of 3.49 over his final 12 starts of the season (with a trip to the minors mixed in). His biggest problem was the gopherball: he surrendered a whopping 25 last year in 172 innings. There was chatter around the organization that he had become enamored with the strikeout, and as a result was leaving pitches up in the zone, instead of pounding the bottom of the zone with the sinker. Keys to his season: keeping the ball in the yard and having a high groundball rate. He’s been exceptionally durable throughout his career.

Joe “Pumpsie” Kelly – Complete wildcard. He has electric stuff – probably the best of anyone on the staff. Similar to Porcello, Kelly gave Sox fans reason for hope at the end of his 2015 campaign. After giving up 5 earned in 5 innings, bumping his ERA to an unsightly 6.11 on August 1, Kelly would post a 2.35 ERA in his final 8 starts, and win his final 8 decisions before getting shut down in mid-September due to injury. It would be foolish to expect him to resume that pace in 2016, but Joe could reasonably be expected to settle into a the role of an above average #5 starter. He could also reasonably be expected to implode and get moved to the bullpen or demoted.

Steven Wright – The knuckleballer gets the nod as the temporary 5th starter thanks to the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez. Steven was solid in spot-start duty last year and I’d expect more of the same. They say a knuckleballer doesn’t start entering his prime until age 30 or so (see Wakefield, Tim and Dickey, R.A.) so Sox fans might be pleasantly surprised by his performance. When Rodriguez comes back Wright will provide flexibility to the bullpen as a long reliever.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DL) – Eddie dislocated his right kneecap on February 27 and began throwing bullpen sessions mid-March so he is about a month behind. Tough break for the young lefty. He said he worked tirelessly on not tipping his pitches and getting his mechanics correct this offseason, and must be anxious to get back on the mound and put that whole fiasco to bed. Taking out his four awful starts where he surrendered 9, 6, 7, and 8 runs while never making it past the 5th inning, Rodriguez allowed 0 to 2 earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts. The other two starts he gave up 3 ER. If the pitch tipping was truly the driver behind those outlier starts, we could all be in for a treat.

Summary: If things break right this could be one of the top three rotations in baseball in terms of 1-5 depth. But that’s obviously a BIG “if”, seeing as we’re talking about one sure thing and four varying-sized question marks.

Relievers

Craig Kimbrel – You should be excited about this guy. He has a career ERA of 1.63 and a WHIP under 1. Dominance incarnate. As great as Koji has been for the Red Sox, Kimbrel is better and younger. Although, it’ll be hard to top Koji’s personality and the way Fenway lit up when his entrance music started playing. Kimbrel’s entrance song is Welcome to the Jungle, which fondly reminds me of the early aughts Celtics, but is a little played out.

Koji Uehara – Koji will look to come back strong after an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. Yes, he “lost” the closer role, but only in the same way that a father lion passes leadership of the pride to a younger, more fit cub from his own litter. The former alpha will still play an important, but different, role in the new-look ‘pen: set-up man. The circle of life. (Note: I think in the animal kingdom the lion is the leader of the pride until a stronger male kills him. Maybe not the best analogy.) Am I worried about Koji’s relative ineffectiveness in non-save situations over the last few seasons? No.

Well yeah, a little.

Junichi Tazawa – After being a stalwart in the back end of the bullpen in ’13 and ’14, Taz had a rough ’15 campaign. On the surface, his numbers were shockingly pedestrian: 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, giving up 65 hits in 58.2 innings. If you dig deeper though, his season wasn’t as bad as it seems. His BB/9 dropped and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) only slightly increased according to Baseball-Reference, and slightly dropped according to FanGraphs. In English: he got a little bit unlucky. To the naked eye, it did seem like Taz got hit harder than normal, but either way, I’d expect Junichi’s ERA to be closer to 3 than 4 in 2016.

Tommy Layne – This guy had an interesting season. I was never excited when he was coming in, but I also wasn’t dreading it à la Jean Machi. It turns out as a lefty specialist, Tommy quietly had an excellent ’15 season. Because he wasn’t used exclusively as a specialist, this gets lost in his overall numbers (3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).

mycousinvinny

HOWEVA: Lefties batted just .148 against Layne last year. To my befuddlement, he actually faced more righties than lefties, and righties tuned him up, slashing .322/.433/.517. Let’s hope he’s used exclusively as a lefty specialist this season. (“Lefty specialist” would be a great nickname for Lefty’s psychiatrist. Or girlfriend.)

Robbie Ross Jr. – Another solid lefty out of the ‘pen. Like Layne, Ross is better against lefties, but wasn’t used as a specialist last year: he faced 1.5X more righties than lefties. But unlike Layne, Ross’s splits weren’t as dramatic, with righties hitting .272 and lefties hitting .224 off of RRJ. I’d expect more of the same.

Matt Barnes – Barnes had a shaky 2015 campaign over a few stints in Boston, amassing an ERA of 5.23 in 30 relief appearances and 2 starts. But like many Red Sox, he had a fantastic September, giving up just one run in 9 appearances. Matt will be jockeying with Noe Ramriez to keep his spot once Carson Smith gets healthy.

Noe Ramirez – Noe gives you a different look out of the bullpen, as he’s somewhat of a sidewinder. He was ineffective in his first call-up in July, but had a solid September. Noe is most likely the guy who will a ticket down the Merloni Expressway when Carson Smith comes back, but he has the opportunity to outpitch Matt Barnes and stay with the big club. It might be tough if he’s relegated to mop-up duty. I’m not sure where else he’d slot in, seeing as he sits behind Taz and Koji as mid-inning RHP options.

Carson Smith (DL) – Another new face, and another great pickup by Dombrowski and crew. He strained his forearm this spring, but it doesn’t seem serious. Last year, in his first full season in the bigs, he posted a 2.31 ERA, striking out 92 batters in 70 innings. You can’t win in today’s MLB without a dominant bullpen, and the combination of Kimbrel, Koji, Carson, and Taz will make life hell for the opposition in innings 6-9.

Summary: When Smith comes back, the bullpen should be among the league’s best (in line, but maybe not quite as good as the Yankees and Royals).

Bonus:

James Shields – This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the rumored Sandoval-for-Shields swap. Shields is another ex-Rays pitcher who always seemed like a punk, and I was relieved when the Sox didn’t sign him last offseason. But that was then and this is now. If the Sox could unload Sandoval and his -1 WAR for a guy who is almost a lock to toss 200 innings with a sub-4 ERA, then sign me up.

Red Sox Drop Opener at Camden Yards

Posted on September 14, 2015 in Game Recap, Players
(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

The Red Sox’ bats have come back to earth over the past two games, scoring just two runs in their last 22 innings. Last night they were shutout by Kevin Gausman and an outstanding Baltimore bullpen, managing only three hits. It was the first time since July 19th that the Red Sox failed to score. That’s a pretty good run for a last-place team.

Eduardo Rodriguez was the tough-luck loser. Eddie had arguably his best fastball of the season and concomitantly piled up the strikeouts, racking up 9 in just 5.1 innings. The only run he surrendered was in the very first inning, and it was kind of a cheesy one. Nolan Reimold fought off a 2-2 fastball and fisted it into right field for a soft single. Manny Machado walked on some borderline pitches. Chis Davis flew out, Reimold to third. Adam Jones grounded to second, but Josh Rutledge couldn’t decide whether to A) throw home, B) tag Machado to start a double play, or C) throw to first to get Jones. Rutledge went with option D) drop the ball and get no one. Eddie would strike out Steve Pearce and nab a Jonathan Schoop grounder to escape further harm.

Rodriguez was great after that first inning, featuring the aforementioned fastball, and a just-soft-enough changeup (his slider was AWOL). But logging 27 pitches in the first inning, combined with three walks and nine strikeouts meant that he’d get the hook with one out in the 6th.

Pitchers IP  H  R ER BB SO HR ERA
Rodríguez (L, 9-6) 5.1 5 1 1 3 9 0 3.94

The Orioles would get another run in the bottom of the 7th on a double by Jones, and go on to win the game by a final count of 2-0.

Notes:

–Jackie Bradley has cooled significantly, and is just 1-19 since his four-hit game against Toronto last week.

-Good to see ‘Duardo’s ERA back under 4. Throwing out his early starts against the Blue Jays and the Orioles when he was tipping his pitches and his ERA is 2.93.

-Kevin Gausman is the guy the O’s held onto in the Andrew Miller trade that brought Rodriguez to the Red Sox. At the time I was disappointed, but I’m pretty happy with the way things turned out. Not that Gausman has been bad, and he out-dueled Rodriguez last night, but Eddie has been better overall.

David Ortiz Hits 500th Career Homer. (He Hit #499 Too)

Posted on September 13, 2015 in Game Recap, Players
David Ortiz has achieved Nirvana. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

David Ortiz has achieved Nirvana. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

As most of you have probably heard by now, David Ortiz hit his 500th career home run on Saturday night.

This was possible because he hit bomb #499 in the first inning, putting the career milestone one swing away. I’m so happy Don Orsillo was the one to call it, and he absolutely nailed the call, as usual.

Papi has come a long way since he was a skinny kid named David Arias fighting for at-bats on the Twins.

David Ortiz Arias

After his age 26 season he had only 58 home runs in 455 games in parts of six seasons with Minnesota, never amassing more than 415 at-bats in a year. The Twins stupidly let him walk, and the Red Sox smartly signed him before the start of the 2003 season. The rest, as they say, is history, but Ortiz wasn’t an instant success in Boston. He hit .212 with one homer in April, and through May he had brought is average up to .272, but still had hit only 2 dingers and was still only playing about every other game.

After June 1 David Ortiz became Big Papi, hitting .293 with 29 bombs and 82 RBIs for the rest of the regular season.

And we all know in 2004 Big Papi became a Boston icon, and he’d live up to his reputation as the most clutch player of his era over and over again.

Now, about my tardiness. David Ortiz’s 500th home run is probably the most noteworthy occurrence of the 2015 season and the reliable Righty didn’t blog it for 24 hours after it happened.

Let me explain: I was in New York for a really good friend’s wedding and was planning on doing my write up from the classy motel I was staying in after the reception (I’m dedicated).

I was following the game on my phone during the reception, at the dinner table, and on the dance floor, and when Ortiz hit the first one I was hoping he wouldn’t hit another so I wouldn’t miss it. No such luck. When I saw he had hit another I aborted my Travolta Twist (mid-twist), turned to my friend Jacky and said “Jack Ortiz just hit #500! I can’t believe I missed it.” To which she responded “Oh wow [eye roll] I bet it looked like the other 500 he’s hit.” Jacky is a jerk. And her math skills are suspect.

After we got back to the motel I fired up my iPad ready to write something awesome about Ortiz’s Ruthian accomplishment, but the “Free High-Speed WiFi” sign by the front desk turned out to be a textbook example of false advertising. Not only could I not get on, but my iPad didn’t even detect a wireless network. At this point it was about 1:15 AM so I couldn’t just waltz into the lobby and ask for help. So here we are.

Oh yeah the game. The Sox won 10-4 thanks to five big flies and a rock solid outing by Freddie Porcello. Boom, recapped.

Notes:

-Pedro celebrated Papi’s feat in style, and is still the best.

Henry Owens Debut Spoiled by ‘Pen

Posted on August 5, 2015 in Game Recap, Players, Prospects
Henry Owens pitches in his major league debut against the Yankees on 8/4/15. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Henry Owens pitches in his major league debut against the Yankees on 8/4/15. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

This one started with so much hope. So much promise. The much-ballyhooed Major League debut of Henry Owens, in the Bronx against the first-place Yankees. For five innings, this was a lot of fun to watch. The 23 year old lefty was a little jittery to start, giving up a run in the first and generally working up in the zone in the first two innings, but then starting mixing and locating a little better. After giving up a single to start the 2nd, he settled into a nice groove, sitting down the next 12 Yankees he faced. He broke off a couple of comely eyes-to-thighs backdoor curveballs to righties and “will it ever get to me?” changeups to lefties. It wasn’t dominant debut à la Eduardo Rodriguez, but still good, solid pitching.


In the 5th, the Sox scraped together a couple of runs in support of their young starter. Napoli doubled, De Aza had a bunt single that moved Nap to 3rd, Swihart singled him home and advanced De Aza to 3rd, and Jackie Bradley Jr. lifted a sac fly to score Alejandro, giving the Red Sox a 2-1 advantage.

In the bottom of the 6th, however, Owens gave up a single and a double to start the inning, and got the quick hook from Farrell, leaving the game having struck out 5, walking one, and allowing only one run, although the runners on 2nd and 3rd were his responsibility. When Owens left the game, the virgins all wisely began to trim their wicks, because the bullpen was a disaster of biblical proportions.

Hank was relieved by Robbie Ross Jr. who hastily allowed both inherited runners to score (the kid deserved better), plus one of his own, giving the Yankees a 4-3 lead.

He was in turn relieved by Jean Machi. Machi had a 5.14 ERA and a WHIP of over one-and-a-half in the NL and was waived by the Giants, so the Red Sox thought “Hey! He’ll fit in perfectly in our bullpen! Plus he kind of looks like El Guapo” and boy! were they right. He gave up 3 runs, 2 earned and only recorded one out. He he was followed by Craig Breslow who allowed 2/2 inherited runners to score plus a few of his own, and he was followed by Alexi Ogando who allowed 2/2 inherited runners to score plus one of his own. By the time the father hen had called his chickens home, the Sox’ bullpen had surrendered 10 RUNS. Just look at this:

Boston IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Owens (L, 0-1) 5.0 5 3 3 1 5 0 5.40
Ross, R (BS, 2) 0.2 2 1 1 1 0 0 4.14
Machi 0.1 1 3 2 1 1 0 5.65
Breslow 0.2 4 5 5 1 1 1 4.25
Ogando, A 1.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3.97

Even the beast with ten horns and seven heads was wailing and gnashing its teeth.

The only other offense was Sandoval hitting a bomb.

I take a tiny amount of comfort in the fact that the Red Sox’ starters aren’t the only ones who struggle with the gopher ball.

Notes:

–Mookie worked out on Sunday and Monday and is no longer experiencing concussion symptoms. He will travel with the team to Detroit, and hopefully play a game or two in that series.

–Brock Holt made a pretty play behind Owens in the 5th.

-Yankees’ top prospect Luis Severino will start and make his major league debut tomorrow. The Yankees think he’s the real deal, and hope he’ll provide a boost to their rotation as they push for the playoffs since they failed to add a starter at the trade deadline. I think he may be able to do that, mainly because he shares a birthday with other stratospherically successful sensations such as Phil Esposito, Charles Barkley, Cindy Crawford, Kurt Cobain, Justin Verlander, Rihanna, and Righty. Would’ve been cool to see him square off against Owens tonight, but at least it’ll give Lefty something interesting to watch tomorrow.

-To cleanse your pallet: This is Red Sox prospect Rafael Devers

He’s 18 years old and does stuff like this