2016 Red Sox Pitching Primer

Posted on April 4, 2016 in Players


While it stinks on ice that the first game of 2016 was postponed, it has given Lefty and I a chance to get our acts together and get you some player-by-player previews. In case you’re running as far behind as we are, here’s a cheat sheet to help you get up to speed on the 2016 Boston Red Sox pitching staff.

Before we start though I’d like to share this quote about Opening Day from our old friend Tito Francona that brought a tear to my eye:

“It’s one of the most amazing feelings there is,” he said. “I’ve been doing this for a long time because I’m getting older. I’m not sure how something can be the same over and over and over and over again and yet be so wonderful. There’s a lot excitement. There’s certainly some anxiety. There’s probably a small piece of terror. Did we cover everything? Things like that. But it’s the same every year. It never changes. I hope it doesn’t. It’s a great feeling.”

Amen, Terry. Amen.

Starters

David Price (Ace) – Listen, I’ve never been a David Price fan. He always seemed soft, sensitive to criticism, weak in the postseason, and had a habit at throwing at Big Papi – a childhood (and adulthood) hero of mine. I imagine it gets very frustrating when a hitter treats you like an old dirty rug, but you don’t start acting like a little bitch (Papi’s words) and throw at Dominican Santa Claus. But they seem to have made up.

Ortiz And Price

In any case, last year I talked myself into Clay Buchholz being a true ace (more on that in a second), but I feel much better this year. Price is a perennial Cy Young award candidate and has had a WHIP of 1.1 or under five out of the last six seasons. He’s a true top-of-the rotation starter, just what the doctor ordered.

Clay Buchholz – You all know the story here: a great #2 starter (altogether now) if he stays healthy. This has been a struggle for Clay throughout his career. No one questions his stuff, but his ability to stay on the mound and log significant innings is always a huge question mark. He’s never started 30 games or logged 190IP in one season. The last two times he came close he had ERAs of 4.56 and 5.34 in 2012 and 2014 respectively. I don’t know if he’s pitching hurt in those seasons, or he sacrifices effectiveness for longevity. Clay might be the biggest X factor of this iteration of the Red Sox, and may be the difference between the Sox making or missing the playoffs. If he can log 180 innings with a sub-4 ERA, the Sox will be in great shape.

Rick Porcello – Can’t be worse than last year.

Realistically though I’m optimistic for a bounceback season. Freddy was trending in the right direction in the latter half of 2015. After he surrendered 7 earned runs in 2 innings on July 1 to ballon his ERA to 6.08, Porcello would post an ERA of 3.49 over his final 12 starts of the season (with a trip to the minors mixed in). His biggest problem was the gopherball: he surrendered a whopping 25 last year in 172 innings. There was chatter around the organization that he had become enamored with the strikeout, and as a result was leaving pitches up in the zone, instead of pounding the bottom of the zone with the sinker. Keys to his season: keeping the ball in the yard and having a high groundball rate. He’s been exceptionally durable throughout his career.

Joe “Pumpsie” Kelly – Complete wildcard. He has electric stuff – probably the best of anyone on the staff. Similar to Porcello, Kelly gave Sox fans reason for hope at the end of his 2015 campaign. After giving up 5 earned in 5 innings, bumping his ERA to an unsightly 6.11 on August 1, Kelly would post a 2.35 ERA in his final 8 starts, and win his final 8 decisions before getting shut down in mid-September due to injury. It would be foolish to expect him to resume that pace in 2016, but Joe could reasonably be expected to settle into a the role of an above average #5 starter. He could also reasonably be expected to implode and get moved to the bullpen or demoted.

Steven Wright – The knuckleballer gets the nod as the temporary 5th starter thanks to the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez. Steven was solid in spot-start duty last year and I’d expect more of the same. They say a knuckleballer doesn’t start entering his prime until age 30 or so (see Wakefield, Tim and Dickey, R.A.) so Sox fans might be pleasantly surprised by his performance. When Rodriguez comes back Wright will provide flexibility to the bullpen as a long reliever.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DL) – Eddie dislocated his right kneecap on February 27 and began throwing bullpen sessions mid-March so he is about a month behind. Tough break for the young lefty. He said he worked tirelessly on not tipping his pitches and getting his mechanics correct this offseason, and must be anxious to get back on the mound and put that whole fiasco to bed. Taking out his four awful starts where he surrendered 9, 6, 7, and 8 runs while never making it past the 5th inning, Rodriguez allowed 0 to 2 earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts. The other two starts he gave up 3 ER. If the pitch tipping was truly the driver behind those outlier starts, we could all be in for a treat.

Summary: If things break right this could be one of the top three rotations in baseball in terms of 1-5 depth. But that’s obviously a BIG “if”, seeing as we’re talking about one sure thing and four varying-sized question marks.

Relievers

Craig Kimbrel – You should be excited about this guy. He has a career ERA of 1.63 and a WHIP under 1. Dominance incarnate. As great as Koji has been for the Red Sox, Kimbrel is better and younger. Although, it’ll be hard to top Koji’s personality and the way Fenway lit up when his entrance music started playing. Kimbrel’s entrance song is Welcome to the Jungle, which fondly reminds me of the early aughts Celtics, but is a little played out.

Koji Uehara – Koji will look to come back strong after an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. Yes, he “lost” the closer role, but only in the same way that a father lion passes leadership of the pride to a younger, more fit cub from his own litter. The former alpha will still play an important, but different, role in the new-look ‘pen: set-up man. The circle of life. (Note: I think in the animal kingdom the lion is the leader of the pride until a stronger male kills him. Maybe not the best analogy.) Am I worried about Koji’s relative ineffectiveness in non-save situations over the last few seasons? No.

Well yeah, a little.

Junichi Tazawa – After being a stalwart in the back end of the bullpen in ’13 and ’14, Taz had a rough ’15 campaign. On the surface, his numbers were shockingly pedestrian: 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, giving up 65 hits in 58.2 innings. If you dig deeper though, his season wasn’t as bad as it seems. His BB/9 dropped and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) only slightly increased according to Baseball-Reference, and slightly dropped according to FanGraphs. In English: he got a little bit unlucky. To the naked eye, it did seem like Taz got hit harder than normal, but either way, I’d expect Junichi’s ERA to be closer to 3 than 4 in 2016.

Tommy Layne – This guy had an interesting season. I was never excited when he was coming in, but I also wasn’t dreading it à la Jean Machi. It turns out as a lefty specialist, Tommy quietly had an excellent ’15 season. Because he wasn’t used exclusively as a specialist, this gets lost in his overall numbers (3.97 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).

mycousinvinny

HOWEVA: Lefties batted just .148 against Layne last year. To my befuddlement, he actually faced more righties than lefties, and righties tuned him up, slashing .322/.433/.517. Let’s hope he’s used exclusively as a lefty specialist this season. (“Lefty specialist” would be a great nickname for Lefty’s psychiatrist. Or girlfriend.)

Robbie Ross Jr. – Another solid lefty out of the ‘pen. Like Layne, Ross is better against lefties, but wasn’t used as a specialist last year: he faced 1.5X more righties than lefties. But unlike Layne, Ross’s splits weren’t as dramatic, with righties hitting .272 and lefties hitting .224 off of RRJ. I’d expect more of the same.

Matt Barnes – Barnes had a shaky 2015 campaign over a few stints in Boston, amassing an ERA of 5.23 in 30 relief appearances and 2 starts. But like many Red Sox, he had a fantastic September, giving up just one run in 9 appearances. Matt will be jockeying with Noe Ramriez to keep his spot once Carson Smith gets healthy.

Noe Ramirez – Noe gives you a different look out of the bullpen, as he’s somewhat of a sidewinder. He was ineffective in his first call-up in July, but had a solid September. Noe is most likely the guy who will a ticket down the Merloni Expressway when Carson Smith comes back, but he has the opportunity to outpitch Matt Barnes and stay with the big club. It might be tough if he’s relegated to mop-up duty. I’m not sure where else he’d slot in, seeing as he sits behind Taz and Koji as mid-inning RHP options.

Carson Smith (DL) – Another new face, and another great pickup by Dombrowski and crew. He strained his forearm this spring, but it doesn’t seem serious. Last year, in his first full season in the bigs, he posted a 2.31 ERA, striking out 92 batters in 70 innings. You can’t win in today’s MLB without a dominant bullpen, and the combination of Kimbrel, Koji, Carson, and Taz will make life hell for the opposition in innings 6-9.

Summary: When Smith comes back, the bullpen should be among the league’s best (in line, but maybe not quite as good as the Yankees and Royals).

Bonus:

James Shields – This post wouldn’t be complete without mentioning the rumored Sandoval-for-Shields swap. Shields is another ex-Rays pitcher who always seemed like a punk, and I was relieved when the Sox didn’t sign him last offseason. But that was then and this is now. If the Sox could unload Sandoval and his -1 WAR for a guy who is almost a lock to toss 200 innings with a sub-4 ERA, then sign me up.

Lefty and Righty are Back for 2016!

Posted on March 28, 2016 in Random Stuff

Well, at least Brock is happy to see us again. (Boston Herald/Matt Stone)

Welp. We may have dropped the ball a little bit over the offseason. Fortunately for us, we have a readership of almost zero, so no harm done, really. But hey, it’s baseball season again, and that means literally months of slogging through the middle innings of games that are already hopelessly out of reach. FEEL THE EXCITEMENT.

In all seriousness, though, this year’s version of the Red Sox can’t possibly be worse than the 2015 edition (right?). So Lefty and Righty are back to bring you all the Red Sox analysis you can handle, and if last year’s output is any indication, probably much more than you would ever actually want. But wait! Can you expect changes from Lefty and Righty this year? Maybe! Changes may include:

  • A shift away from game-by-game recaps. I know, you’re pretty broken up that we won’t be delving into the minutiae of every single Red Sox game this season. How will you cope? But this means more time to think about the content we want to post and less of me waking up at 3:15 in the morning slouched over my laptop. It’s a win-win. Look for posts for each series instead of every game from now on.
  • We’ll pay you to read our website! Just kidding. I’m actually not even sure that would work.
  • More roster analysis. Especially because Boston’s success this year is going to have a lot to do with its roster construction.
  • Less Don Orsillo. Sigh.
  • More Rich Hill analysis. Yes, I know he’s on the A’s now. But I’ve been saying that the Sox were idiots all winter not to re-sign him, and he’s gone ahead and walked 12 batters and given up 10 hits over 7 and 2/3 innings in spring training, and I need to find out if I’m an idiot or what.
  • More blogs about other Boston teams. The Celtics are super fun to watch, the Bruins are going to make the playoffs, and the NFL Draft is coming up. So you can, at the very least, expect us to deliver some uninformed content about the hockey playoffs.

In terms of what you can expect over the next week, we’ll break down the roster once it’s been finalized, and we’ll have a preview of Boston’s first series of the season, a 3-game trip to Cleveland. And then we just write a few more posts, bingo bango, we’re famous. Should be fun!

Mets Win NLCS, Prove Back to the Future II Wrong

Posted on October 22, 2015 in Game Recap

Him? What, is he funny or something? (Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports)

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets, Mets win series 4-0

Game 4: Jason Hammel (CHC) vs. Steven Matz (NYM) – New York 8, Chicago 3

There’s not much to say for the Chicago Cubs. They were doomed from the start. Or, more accurately, they were doomed AT the start, because they started Jason Hammel. I feel for the guy, but after a frisky April-to-June stretch, he was downright bad from July on. Why? I’m sure that there’s a litany of reasons, but his lousy performance in the 1st inning was risk factor #1.

For the duration of 2015, Hammel’s 1st-inning ERA was 5.23, and he allowed batters faced in the first frame to rack up a .921 OPS. In all other innings, he put up a respectable ERA of 3.42. And his OPS against was all the way down at .664. Does he take a while to get going? Does he just have trouble against the top part of a lineup the first time through? You tell me, but the Cubs paid for Hammel’s deficiencies last night, no matter the cause.

The game was effectively over in the top of the 1st. Hammel gave up a single to Curtis Granderson and a 2-out walk to Yoenis Cespedes to bring Lucas Duda to the plate, and Duda made him pay.

Before Cubs fans could pick themselves up off the floor, Travis d’Arnaud took Hammel deep again to make it 4-0.

The Cubs pulled Hammel after he walked David Wright with 1 out, and the Mets added two more runs against Travis Wood on an RBI double by Duda. Chicago, meanwhile, didn’t record its first hit until the 4th inning, when a Jorge Soler double started the Cubs’ first attempt at a rally on the night. The bases were eventually loaded with no outs, but only Soler scored. 6-1, Mets.

Just when things couldn’t get worse for Chicago, Daniel Murphy remembered that he had history to make.

Kris Bryant also hit a 2-run shot in the 8th inning to bring the deficit back to 5 runs, but people didn’t seem to care as much about his as they did about Murphy’s.

This was now all a lie:

And that’s a darn shame. Mets win, 8-3, and advance to the World Series.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals, Royals lead series 3-2

Next game: Tomorrow, Friday, 8:07 ET, in Kansas City. David Price (TOR) vs. Yordano Ventura (KC)

Playoff Lightning Recap: Royals 14 Blue Jays 2, Mets 5 Cubs 2

Posted on October 21, 2015 in Game Recap, Random Stuff

ALCS

Royals 14 Blue Jays 2, Royals lead Series 3-1

The Royals put a quick four on the board in the top of the first off of Blue Jays’ knuckleballer R.A. Dickey:

After going quiet for the middle third of the game, the Royals offense came back to life, and they just. kept. coming. They scored 14 runs on 15 hits — only two of which went for extra bases. You’re good at math so you know that means KC hit 13 singles, and they also drew 5 walks. That’s a whole lot of “keeping the line moving.”

Royals’ starter Chris Young went only 4.2 innings and allowed two runs, but that was enough given the strength and depth of their bullpen. Four relievers combined for 4.1 innings of shutout ball, topped off by old friend Franklin Morales in the 9th.

Kansas City has a chance to secure their second consecutive trip to the World Series starting this afternoon at 4 on FS1. Endison Volquez vs. Marco Estrada. This didn’t work out too well for Toronto the first time around.

NLCS

Mets 5 Cubs 2, Mets lead Series 3-0

This one was a little more exciting than the ALCS game. The Mets jumped on Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks right away thanks to a David Wright single and a Yoenis Cespedes double.

In the bottom of the first, the Cubbies evened things up on this opposite field job by Kyle Schwarber, which also set the Cubs franchise record for home runs in a single postseason.

That pitch is legitimately 10″ off the plate and up. Incredible display of power by the 22 year old.

Speaking of records and incredible, have you heard about this guy Daniel Murphy?

In the bottom of the 3rd he goes yard, giving the Mets a 2-1 lead and ties Carlos Beltran’s record of homering in five straight postseason games. He has six homers in eight postseason games.

Bottom 4 with the Cubs now trailing by a run, Jorge Soler absolutely cranks a 3-1 Jacob deGrom fastball out to right-center.

He must’ve been sitting middle-away because that is an absolutely gorgeous swing on a ball on the outer half. 2-2 ballgame.

deGrom had a similar outing to his Game 5 start against the Dodgers — a little shaky early but composed himself and turned in an impressive performance.

PITCHERS IP  H  R ER BB SO HR ERA
deGrom (W, 1-0) 7.0 4 2 2 1 7 2 2.57

In the top of the 6th, Cespedes hit a leadoff single, Duda sacrificed him over to second, d’Arnaud grounds out, but not before Cespedes swiped third with relative ease. This left Yoenis at third with two outs and Michael Conforto batting. Cubs’ pitcher Trevor Cahill struck him out on a nasty breaking ball in the dirt. Maybe a little too nasty:

New York would add a couple of insurance runs in the 7th, and guess who was in the middle of it all?

The poor Cubs. Obviously some of this damage was self-inflicted, but there were a couple of bad breaks mixed in there as well.

The Mets will go for the series sweep tonight at 8PM on TBS. Steven Matz vs. Jason Hammel. I’d say this one is a toss-up simply because the Cubs will use anyone and everyone out of the bullpen if Hammel gets into trouble.

The Mets will really want to take care of business in this game, because they could be looking at Lester in Game 5, Arrieta in Game 6, and be forced to play a Game 7, which is always a crapshoot.